Geo Politics

Sinusoidal Curve-Sino Indian disputes: Start of Cold War?

Sinusoidal Curve-Sino Indian disputes: Start of Cold War?

With our first edition of Sinusoidal relation between India and China we discussed about what should be India’s stance against China’s increasing pressure on borders and now and then upcoming controversies regarding land ownership from China. We also saw China’s diplomacy related to its borders and saw how India can leverage Tibet as an issue.

In this article we will see latest India’s response to China’s scrupulous behavior. Prediction is the right word, understanding China’s objective is impossible as no one has a clear answer nor anyone can get into its decision making process. Maybe its communist nature helps it to remain so secretive.

Let’s see various school of thoughts predicting China’s policy towards India.

China’s Strategy against India

  • Based on confusion

The policy decision in both the countries from over a decade has seen an up-down fashion, mainly attributed to mistrust and lack of confidence in each other. With China disallowing visa to Indian Lieutenantf General B S Jaswal because he was involved in Kashmir military region, to this India gave passive response. One of the Chinese foreign minister gave suggestion that China is interested to intervene in Kashmir issue, India didn’t responded.

Also to consider is the Sino-Indian war of 1964, where China blames India’s forward policy to be the reason. India takes the stance that it was the misinterpretation of the policy by China that had resulted in the war.

  • Based on indifference

Years long India China relations were sound, it has tended to worsen only since 1964. China’s supremacy in Asia Pacific region is mostly attributed to the smaller states that surrounds it. These gives unavoidable advantage of regional periphery. Ages long China has disdained India until recently when it sees the growth that India has achieved. Now that China is seeing a threat from India it is trying its age old tradition of border conflict to keep India on foot.

The non-issuance of visa to the Lieutenant is merely seen as a move to keep Pakistan happy in turn agonizing India.

  • Based on Rivalry

China strongly now fears India being into competition with it in near future. Even though this state of fear is not seen on papers nor in their media (which is mostly governed by the political officials, they do not enjoy external media nor freedom to internal media) but are strongly felt in their actions. India’s growing relationship with the US also disturbs the dragon. It sees as a growing power combination against itself.

China has not mentioned Arunachal Pradesh as being in its territory or as southern Tibet or any mention in unfinished businesses of 1962. It was not until 2005 that China has recognized yet again its dirty game play, this time with India.

Even acquisition of Sia-Chin is a well-planned strategy to narrow down India’s vision at global point. With the rising fear within China has caused it to start finding out India’s red lines and take a notch on them. With this, it knows Kashmir is the neck where it can catch India. Also it is playing diplomatic and supporting Pakistan.

  • Based on Military

The upfront upbeat on the borders between military forces of both the countries is well known. Chinese officials believe in being assertive is the right tactic for country’s interest. These makes China take serious note of occurrings in Tibet, Pakistan, India, south sea affairs and Xinjiang. India’s dominance in South China Sea makes China aggressive because that part of the waters are important for the trade in China.

China is upset with the disruptions by Muslim minorities in several parts of the country. Tibet’s rebel against communist power suppressing their culture and freedom. Followed by disputes between Uyghur community in the Xinjiang region and Han Chinese.

 

The Uyghur China dispute

Uyghur are basically Muslim community who sense themselves similar to central Asian countries both culturally and ethnically. These people relied heavily on agriculture and trade, and their prosperity can be seen by the town Kashgar thriving on the silk route. The community dwelled in independent Xinjiang area during early 20th century and later in 1949 became part of communist china as an autonomous region similar to Tibet.

The Chinese government invested money to develop this area which attracted young and technically smart Han Chinese communities who were more knowledgeable and hence gained higher paying jobs and positions in the region. These helped their progress much beyond Uyghurs, which slowly were converted into minority tribe. The communist government forced laws against their culture, forcing Muslim civil servants not to follow fast during holy festival of Ramadan. Much like Tibetans, Uyghur too felt their culture getting destroyed. This resulted in the riots latest being in 2009. Many Uyghur leaders were labelled terrorist and made to exile outside the country. Few were jailed and sentenced, thus Chinese government taking the control of the region. The present state of the Uyghur community in Xinjiang is not known clearly due to Chinese control on media and very few independent sources.

 

Recent Happenings and India

It was the second time that China has put a “Technical hold” on Indian bid to ban leader of the Jaish-e-Mohammed militant group Masood Azhar in UN Security Council. This militant group is active in Kashmir region occupied by Pakistan. Masood was detained by Pakistan government after he was found guilty in the Pathankot attack on 2nd January. China is acting diligent and says it wants to be fair and just and any decision would be made after ascertaining sufficient proofs and data.

India has issued visa to the Chinese labelled terrorist of Uyghur community Dolkun Isa. He has been granted permission to attend the meet on “Democracy” to be held from 28th April to 1st May. China seems to be troubled by this as can be retrieved from its responses to Hindustan times and other leading news houses. The location of the meeting (Dharmshala, seat of Tibetan government in exile) still adds to the fury of the big giant. The discussion in the meeting is demand for democracy in China. It just remains to see what actually turns out of this discussion.

It has been long known for India to play defensive with its neighbor policy. But with a notorious next-door player wanting to govern things by its way the stand India is taking is worth appreciating. China’s foreign ministry in one of its responses indicated that it is responsibility of relevant countries to see that terrorist like Dolkun Isa are brought to justice.

Is this the start of a cold war between India and China?

India China cold war?

Is a start of cold war?

Chinese analyst Dai Bing had predicted possibility of a cold war between this Asian giants. Direct or hot war is not an option because even though China has powerful army than India the losses still would be significant. The current context for China’s yen devaluation and slowdown in economy growth from double digits to single China will not opt for it. With Chinese stand for Masood Azhar, India surely has made a strong point by supporting Dolkun Isa symbolizing that any act of the communist government would be countered.

 

India is taking strong actions against curbing any mischief along its borders, whether it be on its north-western area or on its north-eastern corridor. Alliances between its neighbor or any act to smolder India’s reputation at world level would not be taking lightly anymore. With the step taken towards becoming the superpower India’s strong hold in its region and stability on its borders and inside will push up its rapid growth.

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Geo Politics

I am currently pursuing my post-grad from IIM, Lucknow. A staunch and reverent reader, poet by heart, adventurous and artistic by nature.

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